Analytical Report: Structural Violence, Institutional Dysfunction, and Fatalities in Ukraine's Forced Mobilization System (2025–2026)

Context: An Existential and Demographic Crisis

In 2025 and 2026, the state faced a challenge of unprecedented scale, affecting the foundations of its demographic, social, and legal sustainability. Amid a protracted, high-intensity armed conflict that depleted the personnel reserves of the professional army and the first waves of volunteers, the armed forces' recruitment system entered a deep systemic crisis. This crisis was defined not only by shortages on the line of contact, but also by a widening gap between the state's demand for personnel and society's willingness to provide them. In an effort to offset troop shortages, territorial recruitment and social support centers (TCCs) resorted to aggressive street recruitment tactics, contributing to a sharp rise in incidents involving severe injuries or fatalities among mobilized civilians. To understand the scale of the problem, mobilization-related violence must be placed within a broader macroeconomic and humanitarian context. According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), 2025 became the deadliest year for civilians since the escalation of the conflict in 2022. Intensified hostilities, extensive use of long-range weapons, and coordinated strikes on energy infrastructure resulted in confirmed civilian casualties in 2025 alone totaling 2,526 killed and 12,162 injured, a 31 percent increase compared with the previous year. In October 2025, casualty rates remained critically high, with at least 148 civilians killed. While the international community and human rights organizations traditionally focus on victims of external attacks and war crimes against prisoners of war, including the documented deaths of at least 169 Ukrainian servicemen in Russian captivity and more than 120 illegal sentences with lengthy prison terms, internal structural violence by state recruitment authorities long remained a blind spot in official monitoring. Nevertheless, as the HRMMU notes, civilian human rights protection has continued to deteriorate across multiple areas. This report analyzes documented fatalities of Ukrainian citizens resulting from interactions with TCCs during 2025–2026. In an environment where official authorities, departmental press services, and law enforcement structures tend to soften or obscure these facts by classifying them as accidents or sudden complications from chronic diseases, the study relies on independent media reports, human rights investigations, lawyers' requests, and digital traces on social networks. It examines contradictions between the state's crisis narratives and documented reality, mechanisms used to conceal evidence, and secondary social consequences stemming from the degradation of lawful recruitment mechanisms.

The Macrocontext of Personnel Shortage and Legal Transformation

The catalyst for the surge of violence on the streets of Ukrainian cities in 2025–2026 was the brutal arithmetic of a war of attrition. According to data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the conflict entered a phase of unprecedented losses. Since the start of the escalation in 2022, Russian forces have sustained an estimated 1.2 million casualties (killed and wounded), setting an absolute record for any major power since World War II. If the current pace of hostilities holds, cumulative losses for both sides could reach 2 million by spring 2026. This cycle of attrition demands a constant influx of fresh troops to hold a front that, in 2025, was defined by the slow but relentless advance of Russian forces (ranging from 15 to 70 meters per day during the most intense offensives). Against a backdrop of constant reports detailing the deaths of servicemen, such as the loss of experienced fighters recorded in October 2025 (Borys Drach, Fedir Matiash, Mykola Yatsyshynets, Yevhen Kulbikaiev, Anatoliy Trushyn), units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine faced critical understaffing. This personnel deficit was exacerbated by an epidemic of unauthorized absence (AWOL) and desertion. Statistics released in early 2025 point to a collapse in internal discipline and morale: in just the first few months of the year, over 110,000 new AWOL investigations were launched, accounting for more than half of all such proceedings (exceeding 200,000) since the onset of the full-scale invasion. The total number of desertion cases surpassed 50,000.

In response, the state sharply tightened mobilization legislation. The Mobilization Law, enacted in April 2024 and fully effective after a 60-day grace period expired on July 16, 2024, restructured the rules of engagement between citizens and the state. The minimum conscription age was lowered from 27 to 25, with mechanisms for recruiting some people aged 18–24, while the "limited fitness" status was abolished. As a result, hundreds of thousands of people with chronic illnesses were required to undergo repeat military medical commissions (MMCs). Although the Ministry of Defense reported that nearly 4 million citizens had updated their records, primarily through the government app Reserve+, approximately 4.35 million mobilization-aged men remained in the country without serving in the armed forces. Lawmakers introduced severe penalties for draft evasion: sharply increased fines, suspension of driving privileges, denial of consular services abroad, and, crucially, the legalization of mailed draft notices. A summons is now deemed legally served even without the addressee's physical signature. Individuals who ignore these directives are automatically put on wanted lists as part of criminal proceedings. This gave law enforcement and TCC officers formal legal grounds to detain practically any draft-aged man on the street. However, critics of the law, notably Roman Kostenko, head of the parliamentary committee on national security, have repeatedly pointed to its fundamental flaw: the legislation focuses on enforcement while neglecting demobilization and rotation. In public perception, this transformed military service into a "one-way ticket," becoming a major driver of evasion and resistance.

The Phenomenon of "Busification" and the Transformation of Recruitment Practices

The gap between rigid quotas set by the Ministry of Defense and the public's reluctance to mobilize drove an evolution in recruitment strategies. TCCs moved away from relying on notices sent to registered addresses, since many draft-eligible men no longer lived at their official addresses, and resorted to what critics called "wild mobilization." This practice includes raids, street blockades, mobile checkpoints, and forcible seizures of men in public spaces, who are then pushed into minibuses for immediate delivery to assembly points. It gave rise to the informal term "busification" (бусификация). By 2025, these tactics had become highly visible. Recruitment officers systematically targeted leisure sites and mass gathering points, seeking to puncture the illusion of a "normal life" on the home front. A landmark incident occurred on October 11, 2025, in Kyiv, where TCC officers, backed by police, conducted mass document checks outside the Palace of Sports during a concert by the iconic rock band Okean Elzy. Video footage of military personnel dragging a resisting, screaming man in civilian clothing across the pavement, amid chants of "Shame!" from the crowd, spread across international news agencies. Similar raids were reported at high-end resorts and even during wedding celebrations in central Lviv. This dynamic exposed a profound social fracture. As MP Oleksiy Honcharenko described it, an "explosive mix" has formed in Ukrainian society. On one side are recruiters, many of them injured combat veterans removed from the front line after burying comrades. Their psychological state is often burdened by post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and a deep sense of injustice toward those who remained in the rear. On the other side are civilians who view TCC methods as unlawful kidnappings and argue that recruiters seize men indiscriminately, effectively sending them to their deaths. This collision of trench reality and civilian life has created fertile ground for unchecked violence. War veteran and lawyer Oleh Symoroz stated that such aggressive approaches have severely damaged the mobilization campaign and discredited the idea of military service.

Typology and Analysis of Fatal Incidents

A detailed analysis of documented fatal incidents allows for their systematization into three main categories. Each category illustrates a specific type of failure within the state's human rights protection system and demonstrates different mechanisms of institutional concealment.

Category I: Direct Violence and the Mechanism of Mutual Cover-Up

The most egregious manifestations of structural violence are cases of direct physical force against citizens, where the injuries bear an explicitly criminal character. A key case in 2025 was the death of 43-year-old Roman Sopin. The chronology of the incident exposes the interaction between draft boards and law enforcement, in which protecting institutional reputation appeared to take precedence over accountability. On October 18, 2025, Sopin was subjected to violent "busification" on a street in the Podilskyi district of Kyiv. After being placed in the TCC, he managed to call his mother and ask her to bring him a change of clothes, cash, and contact lenses, indicating that he was conscious and oriented. The next day, October 19, he was urgently hospitalized from the recruitment center in a comatose state with severe head injuries. On October 23, 2025, Roman Sopin died in intensive care. The reaction of the district military administration and the National Police followed a familiar crisis-management pattern. Military officials promptly issued a statement claiming that Sopin suddenly fainted and struck his head on the hard floor of the Podilskyi TCC. To lend weight to this version, they claimed there were approximately ten witnesses to this "accidental fall." Police officers arriving at the scene also promoted the hypothesis of a sudden epileptic seizure, attempting to define the case at an early stage. This version was challenged by relatives and independent experts. The family's lawyer, Oleksandr Protas, presented the official death certificate, which listed blunt trauma to the head, massive cerebral hemorrhage, multiple skull fractures, and closed craniocerebral injury as the causes of death. The defense argued that people do not typically fall from their own height and sustain injuries of such destructive force. According to Protas, the nature of the injuries pointed to a powerful blow delivered by a person skilled in hand-to-hand combat. The family also denied any history of fainting spells or epilepsy. Sopin's mother, Larysa Sopina, described the police's actions as "absolutely cynically indifferent," emphasizing that no official attempted to contact the family to explain the reasons for her son's death, and that the investigation appeared focused on concealing evidence. Despite Kyiv police and military authorities formally dismissing all allegations of abuse of power or attempts to hush up the case, Roman Sopin's death catalyzed a nationwide outcry against coercive and brutal recruitment practices. While authorities in Kyiv attempted to present a death as an accident, in several other regions the violence was difficult to deny. In late April 2025, a scandal erupted in the Sumy region when a serviceman beat a mobilized man to death directly on the premises of the local TCC. In contrast to the Sopin case, the weight of the evidence forced investigators to take the soldier into custody. However, qualifying the crime as "manslaughter by negligence" raises serious questions among human rights defenders, as it minimizes responsibility for the intentional infliction of grievous bodily harm upon a civilian at a Ministry of Defense facility. Another especially visible case occurred on April 4, 2025, in Odesa. A routine procedure for forcibly notifying citizens escalated into a brutal apprehension of a man in the middle of a busy city street. During the physical altercation, conducted by TCC officers ("people in military uniform"), the man lost consciousness and died before arriving at a hospital. Footage from witnesses' smartphones and security cameras, which quickly spread on social media, captured a troubling detail: while the victim lay on the pavement, resuscitation attempts were made by random passers-by, whereas the initiators of the arrest distanced themselves from the unfolding events and provided no first aid. The NGO Anti-Corruption Front and other advocates described the incident not as a tragic accident caused by potential hidden heart disease, but as a direct consequence of draft boards' disregard for citizens' health before employing physical force. The online outrage following the video's publication reflected society's conviction that TCCs had become a source of existential threat for many Ukrainians against a backdrop of impunity.

Category II: Punitive Medicine and the Dysfunction of Military Medical Commissions

The second pattern of fatal outcomes is tied to the functioning of military medical commissions (MMCs). The abolition of the "limited fitness" status turned MMCs into an assembly line designed to legitimize sending individuals with severe chronic conditions to the troops. Commission doctors, functioning under immense administrative pressure from recruitment officers, routinely disregard medical records, the results of independent examinations, and the complaints of detainees. A striking example of such medical negligence resulting in death is an incident in Chernivtsi on February 7, 2025. On that day, a joint patrol by the TCC and the National Police apprehended a 32-year-old man on the street who was allegedly wanted for draft evasion. He was escorted to the regional assembly point to update his registration data and undergo an immediate MMC. According to an official communiqué from the Bukovyna TCC, during the preliminary interview, the man was in stable condition and expressed no health complaints. However, while moving through the medical commission's conveyor belt, his condition sharply deteriorated, and he lost consciousness. Despite the arrival of an ambulance and resuscitation efforts, medics could only pronounce biological death. The most notable detail in this story is the legal framing used by investigators: the National Police in the Chernivtsi region entered data into the Unified Register of Pre-Trial Investigations under Article 115 of the Criminal Code ("premeditated murder"), yet added the official note "natural death." This formally fulfills the procedure for opening a criminal case regarding a death outside a medical facility, but also predetermines its likely closure for lack of a crime, shielding MMC doctors and TCC officials who subjected the individual to fatal stress. The urge to write off the deaths of mobilized individuals to their own illnesses did not originate in 2025. The foundation for this defensive strategy was cemented in precedent-setting cases from 2024, prominent among them the death of Serhiy K. at the Zviahel District TCC (Zhytomyr Region). The man was brought to the military registration and enlistment office on May 28, 2024, to undergo the MMC. The following morning, he suffered a severe seizure and died in the hospital on June 2 without regaining consciousness. The Zhytomyr Regional TCC rapidly deployed a narrative that would later become the gold standard for state excuses: they claimed the man had been heavily abusing alcohol for days prior to his detention, which ostensibly triggered status epilepticus. Furthermore, the minor injuries found on his body were promptly qualified by the investigative team as "self-mutilation" during convulsions, categorically denying the slightest possibility of external physical force. The utility of this "epilepsy and self-mutilation" trope proved so convenient that, as noted earlier, police attempted to apply the exact same script to obscure Roman Sopin's fractured skull in Kyiv over a year later. The problem of TCC medical abuses took on an international dimension in July 2025 following an incident in the Zakarpattia Region. The death of a local resident, by some accounts a member of the ethnic Hungarian minority, after his capture by recruiters triggered not merely a regional uproar, but a full-scale diplomatic crisis. The Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, known for its rigid stance on protecting Zakarpattia Hungarians, formally summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to demand explanations regarding the death of a citizen whom human rights groups claimed was brutally beaten by TCC staff. The Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced to justify themselves at the highest levels. In an official statement dated July 10, 2025, the military department unequivocally denied allegations of forced mobilization, torture, and human rights violations, citing the preliminary findings of a forensic medical examination that listed a pulmonary embolism (a detached blood clot) as the cause of death and found no signs of violence. Nevertheless, the mere fact that internal mobilization practices have begun to trigger diplomatic démarches from European Union member states indicates that the problem has transcended the jurisdiction of local military prosecutors, inflicting direct harm on the state's geopolitical interests.

Category III: Institutional Degradation of Training Centers

Even if an illegally detained citizen survives the confines of the TCC and passes the formalistic MMC procedure, his life remains critically endangered during the subsequent phase in military training centers. According to reports from Western analysts, including a UK government briefing covering 2022–2024, Ukraine's recruit training system rests on several large centers that are chronically overcrowded. Amid a continuous stream of mobilized personnel, these facilities are structurally ill-equipped to provide either quality training or basic living standards. Basic training periods were set at minimum lengths of 30 to 45 days in 2024, and conditions are described as entirely unacceptable, particularly for older individuals or those in poor physical shape. Placing men whose medical contraindications were ignored into this environment frequently ends in tragedy. A textbook example of the system's dysfunction at every level, from illegal detention to death in a training camp, is the case of Oleksiy Chorny in late 2025 and early 2026. Chorny was an active full-time university student with a valid legal deferment from conscription. Despite this, representatives from the Berehove District TCC, associated with the town of Vynohradiv in Zakarpattia, ignored his legal status. Without a legal basis, Chorny was forcibly mobilized, pushed through a fictitious MMC, and sent to a training center. The tragedy is that the law enforcement and judicial systems proved too slow to save his life. On December 24, 2025, a Ukrainian court reviewed the case and delivered an unequivocal verdict: Oleksiy Chorny's mobilization was completely unlawful. The court verified that his deferment had never been annulled, and during the hearings, TCC representatives failed to present a single document justifying their actions. Accordingly, the court annulled the orders concerning his conscription and enlistment in a military unit. Yet this ruling was entirely posthumous. By that point, Oleksiy Chorny had already died at the training center. Human rights defenders investigating the incident maintain that the root cause of death was the failure to provide timely medical assistance while he was illegally detained in a militarized facility. Larysa Kryvoruchko, head of a non-profit organization, spearheaded an extensive legal campaign, filing formal criminal complaints with the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI), the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and the National Police. Activists are demanding more than simple disciplinary measures; they demand criminal prosecution of specific TCC officials whose signatures on illegal orders directly resulted in a man's death. Oleksiy Chorny's case epitomizes a systemic breakdown: the state acknowledged its mistake and the lawlessness of its own bodies only after a citizen had paid the ultimate price.

Secondary Consequences: The Shadow Economy of Evasion and Reverse Violence

The pervasive fear of being harmed inside the TCC system has provoked a series of destructive social phenomena, chief among them the criminalization of escape routes from the country. Ukrainian men fleeing forced mobilization have generated enormous demand for the services of transnational smuggling networks. In 2024–2025, the shadow business on Ukraine's western borders expanded sharply: the cost of illegally crossing the border into Romania or other neighboring states reportedly rose to $15,000 per person. This industry creates its own collateral victims, who are de facto casualties of the state's mobilization policy. To bypass the border service's multi-tiered security systems, including drones equipped with thermal imagers, camera traps, and kilometer-long barbed-wire fences, smugglers route escapees through deadly paths. Dozens of men drown attempting to swim the icy waters of the Tysa River on ordinary inflatable mattresses or fall from cliffs in the Carpathians. The situation is compounded by criminal groups increasingly employing local minors as guides: youths who know the terrain and, because of their age, are exempt from criminal liability for organizing illegal border crossings. Those arrested while attempting to escape do not simply receive administrative fines; they are often transported directly by border guards to the nearest TCC offices, closing the circle. Another alarming symptom of institutional crisis is the rise of retaliatory violence from civil society directed toward military recruitment officers. Driven to despair, citizens increasingly perceive these forces not as representatives of legitimate authority, but as an existential threat against which self-defense by any means is permissible. An indicative incident took place in Lviv in December 2025. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General, an attack resulted in the death of a local TCC serviceman, who was previously a veteran of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO). The suspect in the assault was swiftly apprehended by police on December 4. Although this case involved the death of a recruiter rather than a mobilized individual, it is critical for understanding the broader picture: state structural violence can breed brutal resistance from below, blurring the lines between law enforcement activity and criminal violence on city streets. A society traumatized by war begins to fracture from within.

Information Warfare and the Exploitation of the Crisis

An analysis of this situation would be incomplete without considering how fatalities in the TCC impact the state's information security during hybrid warfare. Incidents of violence are instantly amplified across messengers (chiefly Telegram) and social media networks, becoming a potent weapon for demoralizing the populace. As analysts from the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation accurately highlight, Russian state media, intelligence services, and pro-Kremlin bloggers systematically and professionally exploit the visual content surrounding conflicts with the TCC. Footage of beatings, like those in Sumy or Odesa, is woven into Russian psychological operations (PSYOPs). The primary narrative built around these authentic videos is that the Ukrainian government places zero value on the lives of its citizens and is prepared to wage war "to the last Ukrainian," transforming the country into one vast camp. The paradox is that Russian propaganda scarcely needs to fabricate footage to build this destructive narrative; it can broadcast the genuine actions of Ukrainian recruitment offices with selective commentary. This information campaign damages public trust in state institutions and the legitimacy of the mobilization process as a whole. To maintain analytical objectivity, it is necessary to point out that repressive conscription methods and the concealment of casualties are not exclusive to Ukraine, but are also characteristic of the aggressor state. In the Russian Federation, which in spring 2025 initiated its largest conscription drive (160,000 men aged 18–30) to expand its army to 2.5 million personnel, cases are also recorded of conscripts dying before reaching the front, alongside raids against evaders, such as the story of Bogdan from the Moscow region, who has been hiding from authorities due to hypertension. The case of 22-year-old conscript Aman Malyshev from Yakutia, who was sent to a training center in Ussuriysk and died in the border region of Bryansk despite promises not to deploy conscripts to combat zones, demonstrates comparable patterns of state disregard for human life and the subsequent withholding of information from relatives. However, for the Ukrainian state, which declares its commitment to European values and democratic human rights standards, this mirroring of the antagonist's authoritarian recruitment practices constitutes more than a reputational hit; it is a fundamental defeat in the war of meaning.

Conclusion

A comprehensive review of empirical data for 2025–2026, stemming from independent investigative journalism, human rights reports, and judicial documents, leads to a somber conclusion. The deaths of Ukrainian civilians during forced mobilization, whether attributable to direct physical assault within the walls of the TCC, medical negligence by the MMC, or the failure to render aid in overcrowded training facilities, can no longer be treated as statistical outliers, the excesses of individual rogue actors, or isolated tragic incidents. These events form a pattern of institutional degradation and reflect a systemic crisis within the state's mobilization model. The death of Roman Sopin in Kyiv's Podilskyi district, the tragedy of unlawfully drafted student Oleksiy Chorny in Zakarpattia, and the victims of lawlessness in Sumy, Chernivtsi, and Odesa reveal the gap between proclaimed legal norms and the reality of their enforcement. Hard draft quotas, backed by administrative coercion and a lack of motivated manpower, have transformed territorial recruitment centers from bureaucratic record-keeping bodies into punitive institutions. These structures have effectively acquired informal immunity that enables disproportionate force against civilians. The systematic use of military medical commissions to legitimize the draft of individuals demonstrably unfit for service, alongside the standard police practice of shifting causes of death from criminal violence to disputed medical explanations (fainting, epilepsy, sudden thromboembolism, self-harm), offers evidence of departmental mutual cover-ups. This silence is sustained by investigative and law enforcement agencies seeking to prevent further discrediting of the armed forces' recruitment campaign. The continuation of unchecked "busification" tactics, amid disregard for the presumption of innocence and fundamental human rights, jeopardizes national security no less than direct battlefield pressure. The rise in desertion and AWOL cases, the growth of a transnational criminal industry smuggling evaders, the escalation of regional incidents into international diplomatic crises, as in the Hungarian case, and the emergence of retaliatory violence against recruiters are direct consequences of state structural violence. Without rapid reform of recruitment mechanisms, restoration of procedural independence for military medical commissions, and criminal accountability for TCC and police officials guilty of exceeding authority, manslaughter, and failure to provide aid, the toll of forced mobilization victims will continue to rise. Such a trajectory risks deepening social division, paralyzing state institutions, and depleting the nation's demographic potential, which is essential for post-war reconstruction.

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