The Evolution of Mobilization Processes in Ukraine: An Analytical Report (June 2022 – Present)

Introduction

Following the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation, mobilization became a critical element of Ukraine's national defense. This process, which replenishes and sustains the combat capability of the Defense Forces, has undergone a complex evolution as the war has dragged on. This report provides an objective and structured overview of mobilization measures in Ukraine, based on open-source news materials from June 2022 to the present. It examines the key stages of this process: initial regulatory uncertainty, legislative changes, the transformation of Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center (TCC) methods, public reaction, and systemic problems.

1. Initial Stage and Adaptation (2022)

The first year of the full-scale war was a period of formation and adaptation of the mobilization system to new realities. This stage was characterized mainly by reactive actions of the authorities to emerging challenges. State institutions sought to find a balance between the needs of the front, public sentiment, and information threats aimed at discrediting the mobilization process.

1.1. First Challenges: Disinformation and Regulatory Uncertainty

Among the first challenges for the mobilization system were information attacks and legislative difficulties. As early as June 2022, the authorities had to respond to disinformation, including the spread of an alleged "order" from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the mobilization of women. The Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council officially refuted it.

At the same time, public tension arose due to the uncertainty of the rules for the movement of persons liable for military service within the country. In July 2022, conflicting statements by officials appeared. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, stated that "those who plan to travel outside their districts and regions must obtain permission from the TCC." At the same time, his adviser claimed that permission was required only when changing one's place of residence. The lack of unified communication caused criticism and required clarification from the authorities.

1.2. Reaction to Mobilization in the Russian Federation and Change in Rhetoric

The announcement of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation in September 2022 influenced Ukrainian strategy. Whereas previously officials had stated that there was no need for additional conscription, the rhetoric changed after this step by the Russian Federation. The adviser to the head of the President's Office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that the possibility of additional conscription was not ruled out and would depend on the situation at the front.

In an interview with The Economist in December 2022, Valerii Zaluzhnyi noted the effectiveness of Russian mobilization measures, stressing that Russia has a significant reserve. However, at that time, he said, the priority for the Armed Forces of Ukraine was to obtain military equipment, not to conscript hundreds of thousands more people.

1.3. Expansion of Conscription Criteria

By the end of 2022, mobilization measures in Ukraine were expanding. In November, the head of the Zhytomyr TCC reported that they had begun to mobilize men without combat experience, although priority was given to reservists and participants in the ATO/JFO. Martial law and general mobilization were regularly extended, indicating the long-term needs of the state.

2. Intensification and Growth of Public Tension (2023)

2023 was a period of significant intensification of mobilization measures, which led to an exacerbation of social tension. The methods of the TCCs became more visible, and the public's reaction became more conflict-ridden.

2.1. New Methods of Serving Summonses

At the beginning of the year, TCCs began to use unconventional notification methods. In January 2023, utility workers were involved in distributing summonses in Kyiv. In the Ivano-Frankivsk region, a "general order" was issued, obliging all persons liable for military service to report to the TCC. Lawyers assessed this approach as legally questionable.

At the same time, there were reports of increased mobilization in certain regions, in particular in Zakarpattia, which local residents associated with the losses of the 128th Mountain Brigade near Soledar.

2.2. Consequences for the Labor Market and Manifestations of Resistance

Intensive mobilization began to affect the economy. In May 2023, business representatives reported a shortage of workers. The growing pressure from the TCCs led to cases of civil resistance. In July 2023, in Zakarpattia, a man undressed in a TCC bus in protest. In November, in Odesa, a passerby intervened and prevented TCC employees from detaining another man.

2.3. Scandals and Corruption in the TCC System

2023 was marked by a number of scandals related to corruption and abuse in the TCC system, which undermined confidence in the mobilization.

The problems received international attention. In December 2023, The New York Times published an article describing the harsh methods of Ukrainian military commissars and systemic corruption.

2.4. Legislative Initiatives to Strengthen Mobilization

At the end of 2023, the authorities began to prepare a comprehensive bill to strengthen mobilization. The proposals included the mobilization of women, the abolition of compulsory military service, and the expansion of the powers of the TCC.

3. Reform and Escalation of Conflicts (2024–2025)

This period was marked by a change in the approach to mobilization. The state moved from encouragement to stricter measures, adopting a new law on mobilization in order to systematize the registration of persons liable for military service.

3.1. New Mobilization Law: Key Innovations

In April 2024, a new mobilization law was adopted. It came into force on May 18 and introduced several changes:

Key Legislative Changes (Law No. 3633-IX)

The reaction of society and business was mixed. The European Business Association stated that the proposed norms could negatively affect the economy.

3.2. Escalation of Confrontation: "Busification" and Public Resistance

The adoption of the new law led to an escalation of conflicts, and the term "busification" became commonplace.

• Popular resistance: In February 2024, in the village of Kosmach, Ivano-Frankivsk region, women protested against the actions of the TCC. Similar actions took place in Vorokhta, Vinnytsia, and Kalush.
• Violence: Conflicts often escalated into aggression. In the Chernivtsi region, a man attacked TCC employees with an axe. In Kharkiv, TCC employees beat a man. In Odesa, a mass brawl broke out between ambulance doctors and TCC employees.

3.3. Attacks on TCC Facilities

The escalation of tension resulted in attacks on TCC employees and buildings, especially at the beginning of 2025:

• February 1, 2025: A TCC serviceman was killed in the Poltava region. On the same day, an explosion occurred at the building of the Rivne Regional TCC.
• June-July 2025: TCC buildings in several cities were attacked by UAVs.

The SBU and the National Police stated that Russian special services could be behind these attacks.

3.4. Political Reaction and Reform Attempts

Against the backdrop of the crisis, in November 2024, a discussion began on the need to reform the TCC. Members of parliament proposed transferring their functions to civilian bodies. On April 8, 2025, the Verkhovna Rada created a Temporary Investigative Commission to investigate violations in the activities of the TCC.

4. Systemic Problems and Consequences

The evolution of mobilization measures has revealed a number of systemic problems affecting Ukrainian society.

4.1. Corruption as a Factor of Evasion

Corruption has become a significant factor in avoiding mobilization. The "tariffs" for evasion rose from roughly $5,000-6,000 in 2023 to as much as $20,000 for leaving the country in 2024. Schemes included being declared unfit by MSEC and fictitious enlistment.

4.2. Human Rights Violations

The intensification of mobilization was accompanied by cases of violence and human rights violations. Cases of deaths, suicides, and torture in TCCs, as well as the illegal detention and mobilization of persons with the right to deferment, have been recorded.

4.3. Social Division and Decline in Trust

Harsh mobilization methods and corruption have led to a deepening of social division and a decline in trust in state institutions.

• The problem of desertion (AWOL): According to open sources, the number of cases of unauthorized leaving of a unit has increased significantly. The main reasons cited were distrust of the leadership and the lack of clear terms of service.
• Decline in public trust: Statements by officials about "society's tolerance for corruption" testified to a deep division in views on mobilization.

Conclusions

An analysis of news reports shows that mobilization in Ukraine has gone through three stages: adaptive (2022), intensive (2023), and reformist (2024–2025). The state was able to replenish the Armed Forces, but the social cost was high. The chosen methods contributed to declining trust in state institutions, rising corruption, and numerous reported human rights violations.

At the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, several unresolved problems remained. The lack of a demobilization mechanism was a demotivating factor. Discussion of a further reduction in the mobilization age, reportedly supported by international partners, also remained relevant. The need to reform the TCC system is recognized at the state level. These processes affect not only the state's ability to replenish the army, but also the long-term stability of Ukrainian society.