Problems of Mobilization in Ukraine: A Comprehensive Analysis
I. Introduction: Human Resources as a Critical Factor
In the context of the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation, mobilization is a key element of Ukraine's national defense. However, despite the legally established status of general mobilization, its implementation process faces systemic difficulties that may affect the state's stability in a long-term war.
A. The Paradox of General Mobilization
Ukraine faces a situation in which the strong public motivation of the first months of the war no longer compensates for problems with registration, logistics, and trust. This has contributed to a shortage of personnel at the front. At the same time, according to Ukrainian military leadership, mobilization in the Russian Federation has proved effective, allowing the aggressor to accumulate a significant reserve. This puts pressure on Ukrainian leadership to reconsider the scale of conscription.
The key problem lies in four interconnected systemic dysfunctions within the current mobilization model:
Systemic Dysfunctions of the Mobilization Model
| Dysfunction | Manifestation | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Administrative | Outdated registers, "street" conscription | Low efficiency, conflicts |
| Social | Crisis of trust, perception of injustice | Resistance, evasion, polarization |
| Military | Lack of rotation, exhaustion | AWOL, reduced combat capability |
| Economic | Loss of personnel, shadow market | GDP decline, demographic crisis |
II. Administrative and Legal Problems: The Crisis of TCCs and Registration
The system of territorial recruitment and social support centers (TCCs) was not fully prepared for the challenges of full-scale war.
A. Outdated Registration System
The main administrative problem is the outdated military registration system. Back in 2022, Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi stated that more than 3 million citizens were registered with TCCs somewhere other than their actual place of residence. This gap, caused by internal displacement and travel abroad, made targeted and planned conscription impossible. As a result, "street" mobilization has become one of the main methods of work of the TCC. This practice is a symptom of a systemic problem: TCCs are forced to resort to such methods to obtain primary information about the whereabouts of men and to register them. As a result, regional mobilization plans may not be fulfilled. For example, in the Poltava region, the plan was fulfilled by only 13%.
B. Legal Conflicts and Powers of the TCC
The implementation of mobilization on the ground is sometimes accompanied by violations of the law. Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has repeatedly stressed that TCC employees do not have the legal right to check documents or forcibly detain citizens; these powers belong exclusively to the police. However, in practice, TCCs regularly detain citizens on their own, which leads to lawsuits.
C. 2024 Reform: Digitalization and Restrictions
The new mobilization law, adopted in 2024, attempts to solve the administrative crisis through stronger control and digitalization, while also introducing restrictions on civil rights. From May 18, 2024, all persons liable for military service are required to carry military registration documents and present them at the request of a TCC representative or a police officer. A key innovation is the creation of a single state register that will accumulate a large array of personal data. The law provides restrictions for evaders: a court may temporarily restrict a person's right to drive a vehicle. In addition, Ukrainians abroad are required to update their data to obtain a new foreign passport.
III. Erosion of Trust and Corruption
The problems of mobilization also have an ethical dimension concerning social justice and trust in state institutions.
A. Social Resistance
Against the background of reports about forcible detention of men, statements by the country's top leadership that cases of violent mobilization are "isolated" have caused public skepticism. Public opinion testifies to a crisis of confidence in the conscription authorities: 60% of respondents negatively characterize the work of the TCC. In some regions, resistance takes organized forms: women blocked roads, preventing the conscription of men.
B. Corruption as a Social Filter
Corruption in the conscription system allows wealthy segments of the population to evade military service, shifting the burden to less protected groups. This creates social inequality. The State Bureau of Investigation is actively documenting this shadow market. More than 400 criminal proceedings are under investigation.
Pricing on the "Shadow Market" for Evasion (2023–2024)
| Service | Cost (USD) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| "White ticket" (fictitious unfitness) | $5,000 – $15,000 | Depends on region and diagnosis complexity |
| "Shlyakh" system (driver exit) | $3,000 – $5,000 | Temporary exit |
| Illegal Border Crossing ("green zone") | $3,500 – $8,000 | Guide services |
| Fictitious Marriage (large family/disability) | $2,000 – $4,000 | Creating a legal basis |
| VIP Package (full turnkey support) | up to $22,000 | Result guarantee |
C. Consequences of Abuse
Abuses in the mobilization process have tragic consequences. Cases of death of persons liable for military service in TCC premises or during transportation have been recorded. In addition, there have been reports of cases where men were denied scheduled hospitalization without a certificate from the TCC.
IV. Strategic Problems: Rotation, Training, and AWOL
The ineffectiveness of the mobilization system has direct consequences for the combat capability of the Armed Forces, causing the exhaustion of veterans and problems with the quality of recruits.
A. The Crisis of Indefinite Service
The lack of rotation and demobilization of servicemen who have been fighting since the beginning of the invasion is an acute challenge. The final version of the 2024 mobilization law excluded the provision on the right to discharge after 36 months of service, which is a source of demoralization. The lack of clear terms of service is a key reason for the increase in the number of cases of unauthorized leaving of a unit (AWOL).
B. Insufficient Training of Recruits
The Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, confirmed that there were cases of death of newly mobilized soldiers who were sent to the front without sufficient training. The fear of being quickly sent to the front line is one of the main factors encouraging evasion.
C. Reform of the MMC
The MMC system remains one of the most compromised links in the mobilization system. In April 2024, the "limited fitness" status was abolished, and everyone who had it was required to undergo a repeat military medical commission. This initiative seeks to maximize human resources, but it also creates additional pressure on the medical system.
V. Economic and Demographic Consequences
Mobilization pressure undermines Ukraine's economic foundation.
A. Staff Shortages and Pressure on Business
Mobilization has a negative impact on the activities of companies, leading to a shortage of personnel. According to a survey, 81% of member companies of the American Chamber of Commerce (ACC) in Ukraine feel the impact of mobilization. Businesses are demanding a clear booking procedure from the government.
B. Evasion Schemes and Loss of Human Capital
The desire to avoid conscription has given rise to massive evasion schemes that lead to the loss of young and educated citizens. The "Student" scheme has become popular, where men of military age massively enroll in higher education institutions to obtain a deferment. There is also a significant outflow through illegal channels.
VI. Conclusions: Challenges to Sustainability
The Ukrainian mobilization system requires not just minor adjustments, but a comprehensive rebuilding of the social contract.
Strategic Priorities for Restoring Resilience
- Restoring justice: A strict crackdown on corruption in TCCs and MMCs as a prerequisite for legitimizing conscription.
- Transparent rules: Clear service terms and guaranteed rotation to preserve the army's core.
- Effective registration: A transition from "street raids" to digital recruiting and targeted work.
Without addressing these issues, the mobilization crisis threatens to escalate into a crisis of statehood.